A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
